A Note On Employment Growth

Posted on September 28th, 2010

 

One of my readers, Dr Dov Frieshberg, sent me a surprising explanation to what I have observed in the employment data [Employment is rising fast], [Follow up]. According to CNNMoney, the manufacturing sector that had been shrinking for years is responsible for the speed-up in hiring this year, a fact confirmed by the ISM surveys. And you thought only China can produce goods in the global economy…

Follow up: Employment Is Growing Fast

Posted on September 21st, 2010

Payroll employment data from the establishment survey show employment growth in the private sector of less than 100,000 per month this year, leading to the conclusion that the economy is growing too slowly to reduce unemployment. In contrast the data from the less publicized household survey show employment in the private sector growing this year at almost 300,000 per month. Last month it soared 891,000 thousand.

As noted before in [Employment is Rising Fast] around economic turning point the household data are more reliable and usually lead the establishment data. For example, in seven out of eight turning points associated with the last four recessions — four downturns around the beginning of the recessions and four upturns around the ends of the recessions and the beginning of the recoveries — the peaks and troughs of the household employment data preceded the corresponding peaks and troughs of the establishment employment data. 

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Employment is Rising Fast. Can it Make Economic Growth Self-Sustaining and Can the Stock Market Follow?

Posted on September 13th, 2010

As is well known, the U.S. economy came out of a deep recession about a year ago but growth has been slow. As a result, payroll employment has increased this year by less than 100,000 a month, less than half of the rate necessary to start reducing unemployment. The Democrats, facing large losses in the upcoming elections, are therefore devising programs to spur employment, including the small business aid now being pushed in Congress and the newly proposed infrastructure plan.

While all of this is common knowledge, it is at least not really the whole picture: The monthly payroll employment data come from the establishment survey. The latest figure for August showed an increase in employment in the private sector of 67,000. Less publicized are the employment data from the household survey. These tend to be more reliable around economic turning points, such as in a recovery from a recession. They also tend to lead the payroll employment turning points (Chart 1). (more…)

Employment In The US Does Increase

Posted on September 7th, 2010

Employment in the US does increase

Translated from Globes 07/09/2010

Undoubtedly the US economy has rebounded from a harsh recession about a year ago, yet the economic growth rate is so low that employment in the private sector in increasing only by a few dozen thousand employees every month. Since a monthly increase of over 200,000 employees is required just to catch up with the growth rate of the work force, unemployment isn’t diminishing.

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